2008-2009 NFL Superbowl

Sunday – February 1, 2009

Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Eddie: (Winner – Cardinals)

On the morning of the Superbowl I’m finally comfortable with making a selection.  The top defense versus one of the more finesse passing offenses we have seen in awhile go head to head.  So who comes out on top?

For the different styles of play the Steelers only come in with a 7 point favorite.  This tells me several things.  Vegas is trying to sucker in some Steelers bets and the game is actually closer than they are willing to reveal.  If you made the line even or a +/-  3 you couldn’t create a swing vote.  In this case – the popular bet is going for Pittsburgh because of the line being 7.

So  - if 70% of betters voted on Pittsburgh because they are the favorite then Vegas will only have to pay out to the 30% that picked Arizona.

Odd way of thinking I know – but if you’ve watched Pittsburgh all year you’ve seen when they looked horrible and they can be horrible.  Look at some of their close games – barely beating the Browns.  Arizona is peaking at the right time, both on offense and defense, just as the Colts did during their Superbowl run.

Everyone is focusing on Fitzgerald and Warner and Big Ben but I think the game will be won based on the play between Antrel Rolle and Troy Polamula.  Antrel is on a Rolle and you can bet you’ll hear his name mentioned throughout the night.  Arizona has three 1000 yard wide outs so Polamula will have his hands full determining who to focus on. 

With weeks of studying and thinking – I’m comfortable with my pick – the Arizona Cardinals.

Fred:  (Winner – Steelers…but, pick Arizona against the spread)

The Cardinals offense will keep them close, but the Steelers are just a better team.